Home / NFL Projections NFL / Ravens @ Bills BAL @ BUF

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

12-5  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sun, Jan 19 • 6:30 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

13-4  |  Home

27
Key Game
Broderick Washington Jr.
KEY GAME

Broderick Washington Jr.

#96 | Defensive Tackle
@
Tyler Bass
KEY GAME

Tyler Bass

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Broderick Washington Jr. None-None
Tyler Bass None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
42%
📊
BILLS
58%
RAVENS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
78.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.8
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.8 points (Baltimore)
RavensBAL (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

77.9%

Bills Cover

22.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BAL -10.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-6 points

14.9%

BAL By 7-13 points

19.7%

BUF By 1-6 points

10.2%

BUF By 7-13 points

6.7%

AI Model Projected Score
44.38
BALTIMORE
33.61
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
24
BALTIMORE
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ravens Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Bills Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ravens (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.8
D
Sim Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 78.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 7, 2025 BAL @ BUF 40 - 41
Jan 19, 2025 BAL @ BUF 25 - 27
Sep 29, 2024 BUF @ BAL 10 - 35
Oct 2, 2022 BUF @ BAL 23 - 20
Jan 16, 2021 BAL @ BUF 3 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.9% more
Baltimore: 240.1 vs Buffalo: 161.0
Total Yards (L5) +11.3% more
Baltimore: 436.7 vs Buffalo: 387.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.2% more
Baltimore: 6.6 vs Buffalo: 5.9
First Downs (L5) +9.6% more
Baltimore: 24.7 vs Buffalo: 22.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 44.4 25
BUF Score 33.6 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 24.7 20.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 226.2 / 196.6 126.0 / 240.0
Rushing Yards 161.0 / 240.1 147.0 / 176.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.7
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 387.2 / 436.7 273.0 / 416.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 0.2 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 6.6 4.6 / 7.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
BAL
BUF
BAL
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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