Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Timberwolves OKC @ MIN

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

45-10  |  Road

130
FINAL
Sun, Feb 23 • 9:30 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

31-26  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
THUNDER --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Minnesota)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

48.1%

Timberwolves Cover

51.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

OKC By 1-7 points

24.9%

OKC By 8-14 points

14.5%

MIN By 1-7 points

25.8%

MIN By 8-14 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
121.4
OKLAHOMA CITY
121.88
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.5
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 243.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 MIN @ OKC 103 - 116
Jan 29, 2026 OKC @ MIN 111 - 123
Dec 19, 2025 OKC @ MIN 107 - 112
Nov 26, 2025 MIN @ OKC 105 - 113
May 28, 2025 MIN @ OKC 94 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +31.1% more
Oklahoma City: 7.1 vs Minnesota: 4.9
Assists (L5) +18.5% more
Oklahoma City: 29.8 vs Minnesota: 24.3
Steals (L5) +16.7% more
Oklahoma City: 8.9 vs Minnesota: 7.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.3%
Oklahoma City: 37.7% vs Minnesota: 29.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 121.4 130
MIN Score 121.9 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.4 / 37.7 40.0 / 54.3
Assists 24.3 / 29.8 23.0 / 32.0
Blocks 4.9 / 7.1 5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 46.9 43.8 / 55.8
Free Throw % 84.4 / 84.3 96.4 / 75.0
Rebounding 45.5 / 48.4 44.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.4 / 8.9 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 11.3 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
OKC
MIN
OKC
ML
54% 63-53
70% 80-34
54% 50-43
48% 46-49
ATS
58% 67-49
73% 83-30-1
54% 50-43
48% 46-49
TTL
63% 72-43-1
67% 76-38
100% 93-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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