Home / NFL Projections NFL / Commanders @ Eagles WSH @ PHI

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

12-5  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Jan 26 • 3:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

14-3  |  Home

55
Key Game
Javontae Jean-Baptiste
KEY GAME

Javontae Jean-Baptiste

#41 | Linebacker
@
Braden Mann
KEY GAME

Braden Mann

#10 | Punter
Player
Javontae Jean-Baptiste None-None
Braden Mann None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
34%
📊
EAGLES
66%
COMMANDERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Philadelphia)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 EaglesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

48.5%

Eagles Cover

51.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PHI -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

WSH By 1-6 points

16.3%

WSH By 7-13 points

15.0%

PHI By 1-6 points

16.6%

PHI By 7-13 points

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
30.87
WASHINGTON
31.41
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
31
WASHINGTON
20
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Win
66% Win Prob
C
Sim Commanders Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.5
D
Sim Commanders (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 WSH @ PHI 22 - 24
Jan 4, 2026 WSH @ PHI 24 - 17
Dec 20, 2025 PHI @ WSH 29 - 18
Jan 26, 2025 WSH @ PHI 23 - 55
Dec 22, 2024 PHI @ WSH 33 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.4% more
Philadelphia: 195.7 vs Washington: 145.5
Turnovers (L5) +45.0% more
Washington: 0.7 vs Philadelphia: 0.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +44.1% more
Washington: 245.6 vs Philadelphia: 137.3
First Downs (L5) +24.1% more
Washington: 23.9 vs Philadelphia: 18.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 30.9 23
PHI Score 31.4 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 23.9 28.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 137.3 / 245.6 230.0 / 251.0
Rushing Yards 195.7 / 145.5 229.0 / 99.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 333.0 / 391.2 459.0 / 350.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 4.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.7 7.0 / 4.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
PHI Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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