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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

0-0  |  Road

12
FINAL
Thu, Mar 27 • 3:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

0-0  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jackson Holliday
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Holliday

#7 | Second Base
@
Ernie Clement
STARTING PITCHER

Ernie Clement

#22 | Second Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jackson Holliday None-None -- -- -- --
Ernie Clement None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
50%
📊
BLUE JAYS
50%
ORIOLES --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Baltimore)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

62.4%

Blue Jays Cover

37.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BAL By 3-4 runs

16.9%

TOR By 1-2 runs

15.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

9.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.28
BALTIMORE
3.02
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
BALTIMORE
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 TOR @ BAL 2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026 TOR @ BAL 3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026 BAL @ TOR 1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026 BAL @ TOR 3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026 BAL @ TOR 7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Toronto TOR
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.711 ▲
OPS
.692
199 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +57.3% more
Baltimore: 1.2 vs Toronto: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +28.2% more
Baltimore: 12.6 vs Toronto: 9.0
Home Runs (Season) +23.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Hits (L5) +20.3% more
Baltimore: 8.1 vs Toronto: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 4.3 12
TOR Score 3.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 8.1 4.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.2 1.0 / 6.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 7.5 8.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 9.0 / 12.6 7.0 / 33.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.0 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BAL
TOR
BAL
ML
46% 74-87
53% 83-73
50% 80-80
57% 90-69
ATS
56% 90-71
61% 95-60-1
49% 79-81
57% 90-68-1
TTL
51% 80-76-5
54% 81-70-5
45% 70-85-5
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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