Home / MLB Projections MLB / Nationals @ Blue Jays WSH @ TOR

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

1-2  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Mar 31 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

2-2  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Brendon Little None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
33%
📊
BLUE JAYS
67%
NATIONALS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Toronto)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

48.1%

Blue Jays Cover

51.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.1%

WSH By 3-4 runs

13.0%

TOR By 1-2 runs

18.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.79
WASHINGTON
2.98
TORONTO
Simulated Score
5
WASHINGTON
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 29, 2026 TOR @ WSH 5 - 2
Jul 28, 2026 TOR @ WSH 6 - 8
Jul 27, 2026 TOR @ WSH 3 - 2
Apr 2, 2025 WSH @ TOR 2 - 4
Apr 1, 2025 WSH @ TOR 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.744 ▲
OPS
.692
210 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +12.8% more
Toronto: 9.3 vs Washington: 8.3
Home Runs (L5) +58.3% more
Washington: 1.8 vs Toronto: 0.8
Walks (L5) +47.2% more
Washington: 4.9 vs Toronto: 2.6
Total Bases (L5) +29.2% more
Washington: 17.1 vs Toronto: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 2.8 2
TOR Score 3.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 9.3 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.8 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 8.3 9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 12.1 / 17.1 18.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.6 / 4.9 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
WSH
TOR
WSH
ML
46% 74-87
57% 92-69
50% 80-80
54% 87-74
ATS
56% 90-71
58% 93-68
49% 79-81
57% 91-70
TTL
51% 80-76-5
50% 77-78-6
45% 70-85-5
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 19 hours, 13 minutes ago
Rays Sweep Yankees as Fan Interference Call Erases Volpe's Would…
kesq 19 hours, 33 minutes ago
Yankees Denied by Replay as Fan Interference Echoes Jeffrey Maie…
headtopics 19 hours, 38 minutes ago
Brewers Aim to Clinch NLDS Against Padres in Game 4 Showdown
yahoo 1 day, 1 hour ago
Orioles' Centerfield Crisis: Why Byron Buxton Could Be the Answer
si 1 day, 7 hours ago