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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

1-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Apr 1 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

3-2  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Mason Fluharty
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Fluharty

#68 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Mason Fluharty None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
18%
📊
BLUE JAYS
82%
NATIONALS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Toronto)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

42.1%

Blue Jays Cover

57.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.8%

WSH By 3-4 runs

11.2%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.4%

TOR By 3-4 runs

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2.35
WASHINGTON
3.15
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
82% Win Prob
A
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 29, 2026 TOR @ WSH 5 - 2
Jul 28, 2026 TOR @ WSH 6 - 8
Jul 27, 2026 TOR @ WSH 3 - 2
Apr 2, 2025 WSH @ TOR 2 - 4
Apr 1, 2025 WSH @ TOR 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.744 ▲
OPS
.692
210 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +41.7% more
Toronto: 9.2 vs Washington: 6.5
Hits (L5) +8.8% more
Toronto: 8.6 vs Washington: 7.9
Home Runs (L5) +55.6% more
Washington: 1.9 vs Toronto: 0.8
Walks (L5) +36.2% more
Washington: 4.3 vs Toronto: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 2.4 3
TOR Score 3.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.9 12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 6.5 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 15.1 12.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.3 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
WSH
TOR
WSH
ML
46% 74-87
57% 92-69
50% 80-80
54% 87-74
ATS
56% 90-71
58% 93-68
49% 79-81
57% 91-70
TTL
51% 80-76-5
50% 77-78-6
45% 70-85-5
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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