WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
1-4 | Road
2
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
4-2 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 9.00 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Brendon Little | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
9.00
ERA
Ldr 2.25
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
11%
BLUE JAYS
89%
NATIONALS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
WSH By 1-2 runs
18.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
13.4%
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.5%
TOR By 3-4 runs
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2.92
WASHINGTON
Toronto
2.99
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
89% Win Prob
A
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim
Nationals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
TOR @ WSH
5 - 2
Jul 28, 2026
TOR @ WSH
6 - 8
Jul 27, 2026
TOR @ WSH
3 - 2
Apr 2, 2025
WSH @ TOR
2 - 4
Apr 1, 2025
WSH @ TOR
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.744
▲
OPS
.692
210
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+52.0% more
Toronto: 10.1
vs
Washington: 6.7
Hits (L5)
+33.9% more
Toronto: 9.7
vs
Washington: 7.3
Home Runs (L5)
+54.8% more
Washington: 1.2
vs
Toronto: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+43.0% more
Washington: 0.5
vs
Toronto: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.9
2
TOR Score
3.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.7 / 7.3
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 6.7
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 13.1
17.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.5
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
WSH
TOR
WSH
ML
46%
74-87
57%
92-69
50%
80-80
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-68
49%
79-81
57%
91-70
TTL
51%
80-76-5
50%
77-78-6
45%
70-85-5
42%
65-90-6
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