TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
5-5 | Road
6
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
6-4 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Myles Straw
#3 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Straw | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.38
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
40%
RED SOX
60%
BLUE JAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.1%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.3%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.31
TORONTO
Boston
4.41
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.692
▲
OPS
.409
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+118.0% more
Boston: 1.4
vs
Toronto: 0.2
Errors (L5)
+83.0% more
Boston: 0.9
vs
Toronto: 0.0
Total Bases (L5)
+74.0% more
Boston: 16.6
vs
Toronto: 9.5
Hits (L5)
+44.7% more
Boston: 10.2
vs
Toronto: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.3
6
BOS Score
4.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.0
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.2 / 7.1
5.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 8.3
5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
16.6 / 9.5
7.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.1
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
50%
80-80
46%
74-87
47%
76-87
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
90-71
48%
79-84
49%
79-81
TTL
46%
72-83-5
51%
80-76-5
47%
74-83-6
45%
70-85-5
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