TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
7-5 | Road
2
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
6-6 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Lukes
#38 | Right Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Lukes | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 2.84 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.84
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
58%
RED SOX
42%
BLUE JAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
25%
Under 0
75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.5%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.1%
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.79
TORONTO
Boston
3.86
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.692
▲
OPS
.409
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.7% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+75.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+28.3%
Toronto: 69.2%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+15.1%
Toronto: 31.0%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.8
2
BOS Score
3.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 9.0
4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.6
4.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 11.4
6.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.3 / 2.6
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
50%
80-80
46%
74-87
47%
76-87
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
90-71
48%
79-84
49%
79-81
TTL
46%
72-83-5
51%
80-76-5
47%
74-83-6
45%
70-85-5
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