TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
8-7 | Road
7
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
6-8 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
60%
ORIOLES
40%
BLUE JAYS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.8%
TOR By 3-4 runs
12.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.9%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.72
TORONTO
Baltimore
4.06
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
A
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ BAL
2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026
TOR @ BAL
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026
BAL @ TOR
1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
BAL @ TOR
3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026
BAL @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.692
OPS
▲
.711
152
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+53.8% more
Baltimore: 3.8
vs
Toronto: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+35.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8
vs
Toronto: 0.5
Home Runs (Season)
+30.9% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+11.5% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.7
7
BAL Score
4.1
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.4
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
5.0 / 8.7
9.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.5
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.3 / 8.8
5.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
8.5 / 11.6
19.0 / 23.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.5
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TOR
BAL
TOR
ML
53%
83-73
46%
74-87
57%
90-69
50%
80-80
ATS
61%
95-60-1
56%
90-71
57%
90-68-1
49%
79-81
TTL
54%
81-70-5
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-75-6
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
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