BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
16-14 | Road
10
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
13-15 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ceddanne Rafaela
#3 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceddanne Rafaela | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 2.53 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.53
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
57%
BLUE JAYS
43%
RED SOX
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.4%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.7%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.78
BOSTON
Toronto
4.75
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.409
OPS
▲
.692
2
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+300.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+28.3%
Toronto: 69.2%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Walks (L5)
+15.2% more
Toronto: 4.6
vs
Boston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.8
10
TOR Score
4.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 9.6
4.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 2.1
1.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 10.2
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 17.9
8.0 / 30.0
Walks
4.6 / 4.0
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
46%
74-87
50%
80-80
50%
80-80
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-67
49%
79-81
48%
79-84
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
72-83-5
45%
70-85-5
47%
74-83-6
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