BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
17-14 | Road
6
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
13-16 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Slaten
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Slaten | None-None | 3.48 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Brendon Little | None-None | 2.77 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.48
ERA
Ldr 2.77
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
60%
BLUE JAYS
40%
RED SOX
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.7%
TOR By 1-2 runs
15.9%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.65
BOSTON
Toronto
3.49
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.409
OPS
▲
.692
2
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+81.0% more
Boston: 3.1
vs
Toronto: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+54.9% more
Boston: 22.0
vs
Toronto: 9.9
Hits (L5)
+41.7% more
Boston: 11.0
vs
Toronto: 6.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.4% more
Boston: 9.5
vs
Toronto: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.7
6
TOR Score
3.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.4 / 11.0
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 3.1
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 9.5
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
9.9 / 22.0
19.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.7
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
46%
74-87
50%
80-80
50%
80-80
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-67
49%
79-81
48%
79-84
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
72-83-5
45%
70-85-5
47%
74-83-6
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