BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
17-15 | Road
2
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
14-16 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Slaten
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Slaten | None-None | 5.56 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.56
ERA
Ldr 2.25
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
56%
BLUE JAYS
44%
RED SOX
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.0%
TOR By 1-2 runs
15.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.92
BOSTON
Toronto
3.64
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
A
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.409
OPS
▲
.692
2
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+48.9% more
Boston: 2.7
vs
Toronto: 1.4
Total Bases (L5)
+34.2% more
Boston: 19.6
vs
Toronto: 12.9
Hits (L5)
+21.3% more
Boston: 9.7
vs
Toronto: 7.6
Home Runs (Season)
+7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.9
2
TOR Score
3.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 9.7
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 2.7
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 9.0
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 19.6
14.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.4 / 3.8
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
46%
74-87
50%
80-80
50%
80-80
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-67
49%
79-81
48%
79-84
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
72-83-5
45%
70-85-5
47%
74-83-6
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