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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

29-15  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, May 16 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

21-22  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Brenan Hanifee
STARTING PITCHER

Brenan Hanifee

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brenan Hanifee None-None 2.01 -- 1.1 1
Brendon Little None-None 1.77 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.01 ERA Ldr 1.77
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
67%
📊
BLUE JAYS
33%
TIGERS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

70.4%

Blue Jays Cover

29.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.5%

DET By 3-4 runs

18.7%

TOR By 1-2 runs

13.2%

TOR By 3-4 runs

7.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6.69
DETROIT
4.55
TORONTO
Simulated Score
5
DETROIT
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Tigers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.2
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 DET @ TOR 1 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 DET @ TOR 10 - 1
Sep 14, 2026 DET @ TOR 6 - 5
May 17, 2026 TOR @ DET 4 - 1
May 16, 2026 TOR @ DET 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720 ▲
OPS
.692
181 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +24.3% more
Detroit: 2.7 vs Toronto: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +23.4% more
Detroit: 12.2 vs Toronto: 9.3
Home Runs (Season) +16.0% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season) +10.3% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 6.7 5
TOR Score 4.6 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 10.5 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 1.5 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 12.2 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 18.0 / 17.1 18.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.0 / 2.7 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DET
TOR
DET
ML
46% 74-87
54% 86-73
50% 80-80
54% 87-73
ATS
56% 90-71
64% 101-58
49% 79-81
57% 91-69
TTL
51% 80-76-5
46% 69-81-9
45% 70-85-5
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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