DETROIT
TIGERSDET
30-15 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
21-23 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brenan Hanifee
#75 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenan Hanifee | None-None | 2.35 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Brendon Little | None-None | 1.69 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.35
ERA
Ldr 1.69
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
69%
BLUE JAYS
31%
TIGERS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
85%
Under 0
15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
18.5%
TOR By 1-2 runs
13.5%
TOR By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
6.68
DETROIT
Toronto
4.66
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.3
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
DET @ TOR
1 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
DET @ TOR
10 - 1
Sep 14, 2026
DET @ TOR
6 - 5
May 17, 2026
TOR @ DET
4 - 1
May 16, 2026
TOR @ DET
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720
▲
OPS
.692
181
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16.0% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.0% more
Detroit: 11.1
vs
Toronto: 9.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.3% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Toronto: 4.0
OPS (Season)
+2.8%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
6.7
1
TOR Score
4.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 10.3
4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 2.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 11.1
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
18.0 / 18.1
5.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.1
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DET
TOR
DET
ML
46%
74-87
54%
86-73
50%
80-80
54%
87-73
ATS
56%
90-71
64%
101-58
49%
79-81
57%
91-69
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
69-81-9
45%
70-85-5
46%
69-81-10
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