DETROIT
TIGERSDET
30-16 | Road
3
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
22-23 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Javier Baez
#28 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Braydon Fisher | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
66%
BLUE JAYS
34%
TIGERS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
67%
Under 0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
18.1%
TOR By 1-2 runs
14.2%
TOR By 3-4 runs
8.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
6.61
DETROIT
Toronto
4.82
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
C
Sim
Tigers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
DET @ TOR
1 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
DET @ TOR
10 - 1
Sep 14, 2026
DET @ TOR
6 - 5
May 17, 2026
TOR @ DET
4 - 1
May 16, 2026
TOR @ DET
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720
▲
OPS
.692
181
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+20.5% more
Detroit: 3.1
vs
Toronto: 2.5
Home Runs (Season)
+16.0% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Home Runs (L5)
+15.5% more
Detroit: 1.7
vs
Toronto: 1.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.7% more
Detroit: 9.7
vs
Toronto: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
6.6
3
TOR Score
4.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.8 / 8.2
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 9.7
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 15.0
8.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.1
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DET
TOR
DET
ML
46%
74-87
54%
86-73
50%
80-80
54%
87-73
ATS
56%
90-71
64%
101-58
49%
79-81
57%
91-69
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
69-81-9
45%
70-85-5
46%
69-81-10
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Rays Sweep Yankees as Fan Interference Call Erases Volpe's Would…
Yankees Denied by Replay as Fan Interference Echoes Jeffrey Maie…
Brewers Aim to Clinch NLDS Against Padres in Game 4 Showdown
LSU's Defense Dominates Early, But Real Test Awaits