INDIANA
PACERSIND
37-28 | Road
119
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
37-28 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
BUCKS
0%
PACERS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
IND By 1-7 points
19.8%
IND By 8-14 points
9.0%
MIL By 1-7 points
27.4%
MIL By 8-14 points
21.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
115.14
INDIANA
Milwaukee
119.35
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Milwaukee
124
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 234.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
IND @ MIL
123 - 134
Feb 6, 2026
IND @ MIL
99 - 105
Dec 23, 2025
MIL @ IND
111 - 94
Nov 3, 2025
MIL @ IND
117 - 115
Apr 29, 2025
MIL @ IND
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+24.5% more
Milwaukee: 14.2
vs
Indiana: 11.4
Rebounding (L5)
+14.9% more
Milwaukee: 46.8
vs
Indiana: 40.8
Blocks (L5)
+8.4% more
Milwaukee: 4.5
vs
Indiana: 4.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.7%
Milwaukee: 39.3%
vs
Indiana: 31.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
115.1
119
MIL Score
119.4
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.3 / 31.5
40.5 / 39.5
Assists
26.7 / 30.4
28.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.5 / 4.2
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 47.9
54.4 / 47.9
Free Throw %
77.7 / 78.7
96.2 / 76.9
Rebounding
46.8 / 40.8
45.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.4 / 9.2
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 11.4
17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
IND
MIL
IND
ML
64%
61-35
48%
47-50
60%
49-32
54%
45-38
ATS
68%
65-31
59%
57-40
60%
49-32
54%
45-38
TTL
55%
53-43
54%
52-45
100%
81-0
100%
83-0
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