CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
28-23-9 | Road
6
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
27-26-8 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ivan Fedotov
#82 | G| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 3.00 | 0.897 | -- |
| Ivan Fedotov | None-None | 2.45 | 0.929 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00
GAA
Ldr 2.45
0.897
Save %
Ldr 0.929
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
FLYERS
0%
FLAMES
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PHI -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
CGY By 1 goal
16.4%
CGY By 2-3 goals
16.1%
PHI By 1 goal
18.4%
PHI By 2-3 goals
21.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Calgary
1.96
CALGARY
Philadelphia
2.2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Calgary
4
CALGARY
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Flyers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Flames (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 31, 2025
PHI @ CGY
1 - 5
Nov 2, 2025
CGY @ PHI
2 - 1
Mar 4, 2025
CGY @ PHI
6 - 3
Oct 12, 2024
PHI @ CGY
3 - 6
Jan 6, 2024
CGY @ PHI
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+41.4% more
Philadelphia: 5.0
vs
Calgary: 3.5
Shots on Goal (L5)
+37.3% more
Philadelphia: 32.0
vs
Calgary: 23.3
Power Play % (L5)
+6.5%
Philadelphia: 18.6%
vs
Calgary: 12.1%
Hits (L5)
+15.1% more
Calgary: 25.6
vs
Philadelphia: 21.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CGY Score
2.0
6
PHI Score
2.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.3 / 21.3
15.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
47.2 / 49.0
51.6 / 48.4
Hits
21.8 / 25.6
11.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
18.6 / 12.1
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
32.0 / 23.3
29.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
5.0 / 3.5
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
CGY
PHI
CGY
ML
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
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