NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
22-20-7 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
23-23-6 | Home
0
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ivan Fedotov
#82 | G| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
| Ivan Fedotov | None-None | 3.01 | 0.893 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00 Ldr
GAA
3.01
1.000 Ldr
Save %
0.893
1 Ldr
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
100%
FLYERS
0%
ISLANDERS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PHI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
NYI By 1 goal
17.0%
NYI By 2-3 goals
17.6%
PHI By 1 goal
17.9%
PHI By 2-3 goals
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.1
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
3.2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flyers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
PHI @ NYI
4 - 1
Jan 26, 2026
NYI @ PHI
4 - 0
Nov 28, 2025
PHI @ NYI
4 - 3
Oct 25, 2025
NYI @ PHI
3 - 4
Oct 2, 2025
NYI @ PHI
4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+7.3%
Philadelphia: 14.4%
vs
New York: 7.1%
Hits (L5)
+46.9% more
New York: 33.3
vs
Philadelphia: 17.7
Takeaways (L5)
+24.3% more
New York: 5.7
vs
Philadelphia: 4.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.3%
New York: 56.1%
vs
Philadelphia: 51.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYI Score
3.1
3
PHI Score
3.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
20.5 / 19.8
9.0 / 25.0
Faceoff %
51.8 / 56.1
49.3 / 50.7
Hits
17.7 / 33.3
20.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
1439.0 / 714.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.4 / 27.6
23.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 5.7
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYI
PHI
NYI
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
2-0-1
50%
2-2
100%
2-0-1
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