MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
25-21 | Road
121
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
24-21 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
SUNS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.9
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.9 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -7.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
25.4%
MIN By 8-14 points
26.1%
PHX By 1-7 points
13.8%
PHX By 8-14 points
4.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
121.23
MINNESOTA
Phoenix
113.31
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Phoenix
107
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.9
D
Sim
Timberwolves (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 234.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
PHX @ MIN
104 - 116
Dec 8, 2025
PHX @ MIN
108 - 105
Nov 21, 2025
MIN @ PHX
113 - 114
Mar 28, 2025
PHX @ MIN
109 - 124
Mar 2, 2025
MIN @ PHX
116 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.0% more
Minnesota: 10.5
vs
Phoenix: 7.4
Blocks (L5)
+17.7% more
Minnesota: 4.9
vs
Phoenix: 4.0
Turnovers (L5)
+8.9% more
Minnesota: 15.3
vs
Phoenix: 13.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.6%
Phoenix: 82.5%
vs
Minnesota: 78.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
121.2
121
PHX Score
113.3
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 37.8
37.5 / 44.8
Assists
24.7 / 25.6
30.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.9
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 45.8
50.6 / 56.0
Free Throw %
82.5 / 78.0
75.0 / 88.9
Rebounding
44.0 / 46.7
36.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.4 / 10.5
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 15.3
16.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
MIN
PHX
MIN
ML
57%
60-45
54%
63-53
51%
45-43
54%
50-43
ATS
58%
59-43-3
58%
67-49
51%
45-43
54%
50-43
TTL
59%
61-42-2
63%
72-43-1
100%
88-0
100%
93-0
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