MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
29-17-4 | Road
3
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
30-18-2 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Filip Gustavsson
#32 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson | None-None | 1.01 | 0.970 | -- |
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.01
GAA
--
0.970
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
WILD
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
WILD
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
MIN By 1 goal
14.7%
MIN By 2-3 goals
13.1%
TOR By 1 goal
19.3%
TOR By 2-3 goals
24.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
2.27
MINNESOTA
Toronto
2.82
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
TOR @ MIN
4 - 2
Jan 19, 2026
MIN @ TOR
6 - 3
Jan 29, 2025
MIN @ TOR
3 - 1
Nov 3, 2024
TOR @ MIN
1 - 2
Nov 19, 2023
TOR @ MIN
4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+28.0% more
Toronto: 19.3
vs
Minnesota: 15.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+11.4% more
Toronto: 29.7
vs
Minnesota: 26.7
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.0%
Toronto: 53.1%
vs
Minnesota: 44.0%
Takeaways (L5)
+36.0% more
Minnesota: 6.6
vs
Toronto: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
2.3
3
TOR Score
2.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.1 / 15.2
8.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
53.1 / 44.0
62.7 / 37.3
Hits
19.3 / 15.1
23.0 / 12.0
Power Play %
24.7 / 27.1
0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
29.7 / 26.7
33.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 6.6
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIN
TOR
MIN
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
4-0
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
Joseph Woll's Strong Start in Philadelphia Has Maple Leafs Fans …
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl