ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
22-23 | Road
92
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
24-21 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
HAWKS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
26.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
16.9%
MIN By 1-7 points
24.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
113.43
ATLANTA
Minnesota
112.46
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
119
ATLANTA
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
ATL @ MIN
116 - 138
Dec 31, 2025
MIN @ ATL
102 - 126
Jan 27, 2025
ATL @ MIN
92 - 100
Dec 23, 2024
MIN @ ATL
104 - 117
Apr 12, 2024
ATL @ MIN
106 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+25.5% more
Atlanta: 18.6
vs
Minnesota: 13.9
Steals (L5)
+24.2% more
Atlanta: 12.1
vs
Minnesota: 9.2
Blocks (L5)
+19.9% more
Minnesota: 5.3
vs
Atlanta: 4.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.0%
Minnesota: 41.7%
vs
Atlanta: 30.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
113.4
92
MIN Score
112.5
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.7 / 30.8
30.0 / 27.9
Assists
29.5 / 27.5
18.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.3 / 4.4
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 43.0
39.5 / 39.5
Free Throw %
82.4 / 73.2
69.0 / 66.7
Rebounding
44.6 / 43.1
51.0 / 51.0
Steals
9.2 / 12.1
13.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 18.6
18.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
ATL
MIN
ATL
ML
54%
63-53
50%
52-52
54%
50-43
55%
48-40
ATS
58%
67-49
53%
55-48-1
54%
50-43
55%
48-40
TTL
63%
72-43-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
88-0
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