DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
28-16 | Road
104
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
23-21 | Home
133
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
NUGGETS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
DEN By 1-7 points
20.8%
DEN By 8-14 points
9.8%
MIN By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
21.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
116.56
DENVER
Minnesota
120.15
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Denver
112
DENVER
Minnesota
106
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.6
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 236.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.4% more
Denver: 30.9
vs
Minnesota: 25.2
Rebounding (L5)
+13.7% more
Denver: 51.5
vs
Minnesota: 44.4
Steals (L5)
+11.3% more
Denver: 7.6
vs
Minnesota: 6.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
Denver: 53.0%
vs
Minnesota: 45.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
116.6
104
MIN Score
120.2
133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 40.2
46.7 / 34.4
Assists
25.2 / 30.9
38.0 / 32.0
Blocks
6.0 / 6.0
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 53.0
55.8 / 48.9
Free Throw %
80.3 / 79.7
86.7 / 53.8
Rebounding
44.4 / 51.5
45.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.6
14.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 13.8
16.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DEN
MIN
DEN
ML
54%
63-53
54%
57-48
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
ATS
58%
67-49
63%
65-38-2
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
TTL
63%
72-43-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
86-0
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