BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
18-25-5 | Road
2
EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
30-15-3 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Mattias Samuelsson
#23 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Ty Emberson
#49 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Samuelsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Ty Emberson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
OILERS
0%
SABRES
--
OILERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
BUF By 1 goal
9.0%
BUF By 2-3 goals
5.8%
EDM By 1 goal
19.0%
EDM By 2-3 goals
34.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
2.37
BUFFALO
Edmonton
3.91
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Edmonton
4
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Oilers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Oilers
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Oilers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.5
D
Sim
Oilers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 9, 2025
BUF @ EDM
4 - 3
Nov 17, 2025
EDM @ BUF
1 - 5
Mar 10, 2025
EDM @ BUF
2 - 3
Jan 25, 2025
BUF @ EDM
2 - 3
Mar 21, 2024
BUF @ EDM
3 - 8
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+70.0% more
Edmonton: 4.9
vs
Buffalo: 2.9
Power Play % (L5)
+25.8%
Edmonton: 35.6%
vs
Buffalo: 9.8%
Hits (L5)
+24.1% more
Buffalo: 19.0
vs
Edmonton: 14.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.6%
Buffalo: 51.9%
vs
Edmonton: 47.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
2.4
2
EDM Score
3.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.9 / 12.6
16.0 / 7.0
Faceoff %
47.3 / 51.9
50.8 / 49.2
Hits
14.4 / 19.0
15.0 / 29.0
Power Play %
3557.0 / 982.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.2 / 30.7
34.0 / 41.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 2.9
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
BUF
EDM
BUF
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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