TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
30-17-2 | Road
1
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
24-20-4 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Artem Zub
#2 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Artem Zub | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
SENATORS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
TOR By 1 goal
14.6%
TOR By 2-3 goals
12.9%
OTT By 1 goal
19.3%
OTT By 2-3 goals
25.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2.44
TORONTO
Ottawa
3.01
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.6
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
OTT @ TOR
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ OTT
1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026
TOR @ OTT
2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026
OTT @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025
OTT @ TOR
5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+48.4% more
Ottawa: 7.2
vs
Toronto: 4.9
Blocked Shots (L5)
+33.4% more
Ottawa: 17.5
vs
Toronto: 13.1
Hits (L5)
+17.2% more
Ottawa: 22.8
vs
Toronto: 19.5
Power Play % (L5)
+32.1%
Toronto: 37.0%
vs
Ottawa: 4.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.4
1
OTT Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.5 / 13.1
16.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
50.3 / 53.1
47.1 / 52.9
Hits
22.8 / 19.5
24.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
4.9 / 37.0
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.6 / 30.1
23.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
7.2 / 4.9
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
TOR
OTT
TOR
ML
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-3
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
67%
2-1
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
Contextual Game News
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
Joseph Woll's Strong Start in Philadelphia Has Maple Leafs Fans …
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Nashville Predators' Early Season: Three Burning Questions After…