MIAMI
HEATMIA
21-21 | Road
96
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
24-17 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
BUCKS
100%
HEAT
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
20.3%
MIL By 1-7 points
21.4%
MIL By 8-14 points
10.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
117.41
MIAMI
Milwaukee
114.28
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Miami
102
MIAMI
Milwaukee
109
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
MIL @ MIA
105 - 112
Feb 24, 2026
MIA @ MIL
117 - 128
Nov 26, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 106
Oct 6, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 93
Apr 5, 2025
MIL @ MIA
121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.8%
Miami: 92.2%
vs
Milwaukee: 75.4%
Blocks (L5)
+26.5% more
Milwaukee: 4.8
vs
Miami: 3.8
Steals (L5)
+12.6% more
Milwaukee: 5.5
vs
Miami: 4.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
Milwaukee: 51.7%
vs
Miami: 47.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
117.4
96
MIL Score
114.3
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.4 / 38.5
45.0 / 23.5
Assists
27.3 / 28.6
32.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.8 / 3.8
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.7 / 47.5
46.9 / 37.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 92.2
75.0 / 76.2
Rebounding
47.0 / 44.8
55.0 / 50.0
Steals
5.5 / 4.9
5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 11.7
7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
MIA
MIL
MIA
ML
64%
61-35
48%
46-50
60%
49-32
59%
48-34
ATS
68%
65-31
51%
49-47
60%
49-32
59%
48-34
TTL
55%
53-43
59%
57-39
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
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