MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
22-21 | Road
115
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
23-20 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
MIN By 1-7 points
24.0%
MIN By 8-14 points
13.3%
DAL By 1-7 points
26.4%
DAL By 8-14 points
17.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
110.53
MINNESOTA
Dallas
111.76
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Minnesota
111
MINNESOTA
Dallas
117
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
MIN @ DAL
124 - 94
Feb 20, 2026
DAL @ MIN
111 - 122
Jan 28, 2026
MIN @ DAL
118 - 105
Nov 17, 2025
DAL @ MIN
96 - 120
Jan 22, 2025
MIN @ DAL
115 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+90.9% more
Dallas: 9.9
vs
Minnesota: 5.2
Blocks (L5)
+28.7% more
Dallas: 6.4
vs
Minnesota: 4.9
Turnovers (L5)
+8.1% more
Dallas: 14.8
vs
Minnesota: 13.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.7%
Dallas: 78.0%
vs
Minnesota: 76.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
110.5
115
DAL Score
111.8
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.0 / 39.9
27.6 / 37.9
Assists
23.7 / 24.8
24.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.4 / 4.9
4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 45.3
50.0 / 45.7
Free Throw %
78.0 / 76.4
84.2 / 88.2
Rebounding
44.9 / 47.1
38.0 / 39.0
Steals
9.9 / 5.2
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 13.7
15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MIN
DAL
MIN
ML
62%
63-39
54%
63-53
54%
44-37
54%
50-43
ATS
67%
68-34
58%
67-49
54%
44-37
54%
50-43
TTL
59%
60-41-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
81-0
100%
93-0
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