MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
22-20 | Road
106
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
27-15 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
23.6%
MIN By 8-14 points
27.1%
MEM By 1-7 points
11.4%
MEM By 8-14 points
3.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
124.36
MINNESOTA
Memphis
114.84
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Minnesota
114
MINNESOTA
Memphis
120
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.5
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 239.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
MEM @ MIN
110 - 117
Feb 2, 2026
MIN @ MEM
128 - 137
Jan 31, 2026
MIN @ MEM
131 - 114
Dec 17, 2025
MEM @ MIN
116 - 110
Apr 10, 2025
MIN @ MEM
141 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+33.1% more
Minnesota: 4.4
vs
Memphis: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Minnesota: 77.5%
vs
Memphis: 71.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Minnesota: 43.6%
vs
Memphis: 40.9%
Steals (L5)
+93.2% more
Memphis: 10.2
vs
Minnesota: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
124.4
106
MEM Score
114.8
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.9 / 43.6
21.2 / 32.6
Assists
28.9 / 24.7
19.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.4
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
51.7 / 48.6
43.0 / 38.7
Free Throw %
71.3 / 77.5
79.4 / 74.1
Rebounding
43.8 / 44.6
47.0 / 52.0
Steals
10.2 / 5.3
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 12.6
13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
MIN
MEM
MIN
ML
57%
59-44
54%
63-53
50%
41-41
54%
50-43
ATS
63%
65-38
58%
67-49
50%
41-41
54%
50-43
TTL
70%
71-31-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
82-0
100%
93-0
Contextual Game News
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
Adam Fox Quietly Dominating as Rangers Surge Early in 2026-27
Cal Bears' Injury Report: Eight Players Questionable for Virgini…
Haliburton Returns to Hilton Coliseum as Pacers Defeat Timberwol…
Chicago Bulls Edge Phoenix Suns 124-117 in Preseason Opener