CAROLINA
HURRICANESCAR
26-15-3 | Road
2
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
16-22-5 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Dustin Tokarski
#34 | G@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Tokarski | None-None | 3.12 | 0.875 | -- |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 2.00 | 0.946 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.12
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.875
Save %
Ldr 0.946
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
0%
SABRES
100%
HURRICANES
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around CAR -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)
CAR By 1 goal
19.6%
CAR By 2-3 goals
27.0%
BUF By 1 goal
13.5%
BUF By 2-3 goals
11.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Carolina
3.48
CAROLINA
Buffalo
2.72
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Carolina
3
CAROLINA
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hurricanes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hurricanes
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hurricanes (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim
Hurricanes (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 19, 2026
BUF @ CAR
1 - 2
Nov 23, 2025
CAR @ BUF
1 - 4
Nov 8, 2025
BUF @ CAR
3 - 6
Apr 8, 2025
CAR @ BUF
0 - 3
Feb 27, 2025
BUF @ CAR
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+23.9% more
Carolina: 14.0
vs
Buffalo: 10.6
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.3% more
Carolina: 31.0
vs
Buffalo: 27.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+12.0%
Carolina: 54.2%
vs
Buffalo: 42.2%
Hits (L5)
+10.2% more
Carolina: 21.3
vs
Buffalo: 19.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CAR Score
3.5
2
BUF Score
2.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
10.6 / 14.0
25.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
42.2 / 54.2
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
19.2 / 21.3
16.0 / 11.0
Power Play %
2210.0 / 1770.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.2 / 31.0
24.0 / 37.0
Takeaways
3.1 / 2.9
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
CAR
BUF
CAR
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
100%
4-0
TTL
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
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