Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Bucks SAC @ MIL

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

20-19  |  Road

115
FINAL
Tue, Jan 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

20-17  |  Home

130
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
BUCKS
100%
KINGS --
BUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.8
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 BucksMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

68.5%

Bucks Cover

31.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -4.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

27.3%

SAC By 8-14 points

22.8%

MIL By 1-7 points

18.8%

MIL By 8-14 points

8.2%

AI Model Projected Score
116.88
SACRAMENTO
112.05
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
107
SACRAMENTO
115
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bucks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.8
D
Sim Bucks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 MIL @ SAC 115 - 98
Nov 1, 2025 SAC @ MIL 135 - 133
Mar 22, 2025 MIL @ SAC 114 - 108
Jan 14, 2025 SAC @ MIL 115 - 130
Mar 12, 2024 MIL @ SAC 94 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +20.5% more
Sacramento: 29.8 vs Milwaukee: 23.7
Blocks (L5) +19.2% more
Sacramento: 5.2 vs Milwaukee: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5) +17.1%
Sacramento: 83.6% vs Milwaukee: 66.5%
Rebounding (L5) +14.3% more
Sacramento: 51.9 vs Milwaukee: 44.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 116.9 115
MIL Score 112.1 130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 36.0 37.8 / 40.5
Assists 23.7 / 29.8 32.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.2 / 5.2 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 46.7 49.5 / 44.2
Free Throw % 66.5 / 83.6 83.3 / 77.8
Rebounding 44.4 / 51.9 52.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.9 / 8.0 2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 11.7 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
MIL Advantage
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
SAC
MIL
SAC
ML
64% 61-35
55% 55-45
60% 49-32
61% 50-32
ATS
68% 65-31
54% 52-45-3
60% 49-32
61% 50-32
TTL
55% 53-43
58% 57-42-1
100% 81-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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