DALLAS
STARSDAL
27-14-1 | Road
4
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
27-15-2 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 1.00 | 0.964 | -- |
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00
GAA
--
0.964
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
STARS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
DAL By 1 goal
15.6%
DAL By 2-3 goals
14.6%
TOR By 1 goal
18.9%
TOR By 2-3 goals
22.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
2.9
DALLAS
Toronto
3.29
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 13, 2026
DAL @ TOR
6 - 5
Dec 21, 2025
TOR @ DAL
1 - 5
Jan 14, 2025
DAL @ TOR
4 - 1
Dec 18, 2024
TOR @ DAL
5 - 3
Feb 7, 2024
DAL @ TOR
4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+149.4% more
Toronto: 23.2
vs
Dallas: 9.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.8%
Toronto: 52.8%
vs
Dallas: 49.0%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+17.2% more
Dallas: 29.8
vs
Toronto: 24.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
2.9
4
TOR Score
3.3
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.8 / 15.1
8.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
52.8 / 49.0
49.0 / 51.0
Hits
23.2 / 9.3
35.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
18.7 / 19.6
0.0 / 66.7
Shots on Goal
24.7 / 29.8
28.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 4.4
8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DAL
TOR
DAL
ML
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-4
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
4-0
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
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