Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Timberwolves MEM @ MIN

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

24-14  |  Road

127
FINAL
Sat, Jan 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

20-17  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
GRIZZLIES --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 points (Minnesota)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

28.9%

Timberwolves Cover

71.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MEM By 1-7 points

17.6%

MEM By 8-14 points

7.3%

MIN By 1-7 points

27.0%

MIN By 8-14 points

23.7%

AI Model Projected Score
112.66
MEMPHIS
118.22
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
112
MEMPHIS
105
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.6
D
Sim Grizzlies (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 MEM @ MIN 110 - 117
Feb 2, 2026 MIN @ MEM 128 - 137
Jan 31, 2026 MIN @ MEM 131 - 114
Dec 17, 2025 MEM @ MIN 116 - 110
Apr 10, 2025 MIN @ MEM 141 - 125
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Minnesota: 37.8% vs Memphis: 34.6%
Turnovers (L5) +23.5% more
Memphis: 18.7 vs Minnesota: 14.3
Blocks (L5) +19.3% more
Memphis: 6.3 vs Minnesota: 5.1
Steals (L5) +18.6% more
Memphis: 9.1 vs Minnesota: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 112.7 127
MIN Score 118.2 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 34.6 40.5 / 39.0
Assists 23.0 / 25.2 37.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.1 / 6.3 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 48.0 56.6 / 44.4
Free Throw % 74.5 / 74.9 73.7 / 78.9
Rebounding 48.6 / 48.0 41.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.4 / 9.1 7.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 18.7 19.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
MEM
MIN
MEM
ML
54% 63-53
57% 59-44
54% 50-43
50% 41-41
ATS
58% 67-49
63% 65-38
54% 50-43
50% 41-41
TTL
63% 72-43-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 93-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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