TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
26-13-2 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
17-18-5 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Joseph Woll
#53 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Joseph Woll | None-None | 2.00 | 0.938 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.00
--
Save %
0.938
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
FLYERS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
18.9%
TOR By 2-3 goals
35.0%
PHI By 1 goal
8.6%
PHI By 2-3 goals
5.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.33
TORONTO
Philadelphia
2.72
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
PHI @ TOR
3 - 2
Jan 8, 2026
TOR @ PHI
2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025
TOR @ PHI
5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025
PHI @ TOR
2 - 7
Jan 7, 2025
TOR @ PHI
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+26.7% more
Toronto: 30.8
vs
Philadelphia: 22.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+15.0%
Toronto: 57.2%
vs
Philadelphia: 42.2%
Takeaways (L5)
+9.6% more
Philadelphia: 3.9
vs
Toronto: 3.5
Power Play % (L5)
+3.1%
Philadelphia: 16.3%
vs
Toronto: 13.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.3
3
PHI Score
2.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.6 / 15.1
17.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
42.2 / 57.2
46.4 / 53.6
Hits
22.6 / 30.8
15.0 / 31.0
Power Play %
16.3 / 13.2
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
28.5 / 27.7
32.0 / 17.0
Takeaways
3.9 / 3.5
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
TOR
PHI
TOR
ML
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
25%
1-3
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
Contextual Game News
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