WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
26-10-3 | Road
3
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
14-21-5 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 2.77 | 0.889 | -- |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 2.77 | 0.893 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.77
GAA
2.77
0.889
Save %
Ldr 0.893
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
SABRES
0%
CAPITALS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
WSH By 1 goal
12.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
10.2%
BUF By 1 goal
19.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
28.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2.61
WASHINGTON
Buffalo
3.5
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.9
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
BUF @ WSH
2 - 6
Mar 12, 2026
WSH @ BUF
2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025
WSH @ BUF
3 - 4
Mar 30, 2025
BUF @ WSH
8 - 5
Jan 6, 2025
WSH @ BUF
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+75.3% more
Buffalo: 4.3
vs
Washington: 2.4
Blocked Shots (L5)
+29.1% more
Washington: 19.1
vs
Buffalo: 13.5
Shots on Goal (L5)
+16.2% more
Washington: 27.6
vs
Buffalo: 23.1
Power Play % (L5)
+7.6%
Washington: 43.0%
vs
Buffalo: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.6
3
BUF Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.5 / 19.1
20.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
48.4 / 51.6
45.9 / 54.1
Hits
21.4 / 20.1
10.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
35.4 / 43.0
33.3 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
23.1 / 27.6
27.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 2.4
2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
WSH
BUF
WSH
ML
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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