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PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

17-18-4  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

25-13-2  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Ivan Fedotov
GOALTENDER

Ivan Fedotov

#82 | G
@
Chris Tanev
GOALTENDER

Chris Tanev

#8 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ivan Fedotov None-None 2.89 0.880 --
Chris Tanev None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.89 GAA --
0.880 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
FLYERS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Toronto)
FlyersPHI (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

28.8%

Maple Leafs Cover

71.2%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

PHI By 1 goal

11.4%

PHI By 2-3 goals

8.5%

TOR By 1 goal

19.7%

TOR By 2-3 goals

30.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2.72
PHILADELPHIA
3.84
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.1
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 2, 2026 PHI @ TOR 3 - 2
Jan 8, 2026 TOR @ PHI 2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025 TOR @ PHI 5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025 PHI @ TOR 2 - 7
Jan 7, 2025 TOR @ PHI 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +42.2% more
Toronto: 24.7 vs Philadelphia: 17.4
Takeaways (L5) +12.8% more
Toronto: 4.3 vs Philadelphia: 3.8
Shots on Goal (L5) +8.3% more
Toronto: 29.0 vs Philadelphia: 26.8
Faceoff % (L5) +5.2%
Toronto: 52.1% vs Philadelphia: 46.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 2.7 2
TOR Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.1 / 15.8 17.0 / 12.0
Faceoff % 52.1 / 46.9 67.3 / 32.7
Hits 24.7 / 17.4 43.0 / 33.0
Power Play % 1973.0 / 2444.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 29.0 / 26.8 25.0 / 32.0
Takeaways 4.3 / 3.8 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
93%MONEY7%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PHI
TOR
PHI
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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