Home / NHL Projections NHL / Bruins @ Maple Leafs BOS @ TOR

BOSTON

BRUINSBOS

20-16-4  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Jan 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

24-13-2  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Jeremy Swayman
GOALTENDER

Jeremy Swayman

#1 | Goaltender
@
Chris Tanev
GOALTENDER

Chris Tanev

#8 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jeremy Swayman None-None 4.14 0.852 --
Chris Tanev None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.14 GAA --
0.852 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
BRUINS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Toronto)
BruinsBOS (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

34.5%

Maple Leafs Cover

65.5%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

BOS By 1 goal

13.3%

BOS By 2-3 goals

10.9%

TOR By 1 goal

19.6%

TOR By 2-3 goals

27.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.46
BOSTON
3.26
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 TOR @ BOS 4 - 2
Nov 11, 2025 TOR @ BOS 3 - 5
Nov 8, 2025 BOS @ TOR 5 - 3
Feb 25, 2025 TOR @ BOS 5 - 4
Jan 4, 2025 BOS @ TOR 4 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +31.8% more
Toronto: 27.1 vs Boston: 20.6
Power Play % (L5) +25.7%
Toronto: 29.6% vs Boston: 3.9%
Takeaways (L5) +22.9% more
Boston: 4.5 vs Toronto: 3.5
Blocked Shots (L5) +17.8% more
Boston: 17.2 vs Toronto: 14.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 2.5 4
TOR Score 3.3 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.2 / 17.2 14.0 / 6.0
Faceoff % 50.9 / 53.8 54.5 / 45.5
Hits 27.1 / 20.6 20.0 / 23.0
Power Play % 2959.0 / 386.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 29.0 / 28.6 29.0 / 31.0
Takeaways 3.5 / 4.5 6.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
79%MONEY21%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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