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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

24-9  |  Road

118
FINAL
Thu, Jan 2 • 7:30 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

17-15  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
CELTICS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

61.0%

Timberwolves Cover

39.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

27.2%

BOS By 8-14 points

19.8%

MIN By 1-7 points

21.9%

MIN By 8-14 points

11.0%

AI Model Projected Score
113.81
BOSTON
111.02
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
114
BOSTON
120
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 MIN @ BOS 102 - 92
Nov 29, 2025 BOS @ MIN 115 - 119
Jan 2, 2025 BOS @ MIN 118 - 115
Nov 24, 2024 MIN @ BOS 105 - 107
Jan 10, 2024 MIN @ BOS 120 - 127
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.9% more
Boston: 9.5 vs Minnesota: 5.8
Assists (L5) +11.6% more
Boston: 26.7 vs Minnesota: 23.6
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Boston: 49.1% vs Minnesota: 46.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Boston: 39.7% vs Minnesota: 37.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 113.8 118
MIN Score 111.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 39.7 53.8 / 38.6
Assists 23.6 / 26.7 24.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.6 / 6.0 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 49.1 50.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 82.2 / 68.8 90.9 / 66.7
Rebounding 45.9 / 47.8 41.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.8 / 9.5 1.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 16.9 / 11.6 16.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
BOS
MIN
BOS
ML
54% 63-53
57% 61-46
54% 50-43
53% 47-41
ATS
58% 67-49
59% 61-43-3
54% 50-43
53% 47-41
TTL
63% 72-43-1
56% 60-47
100% 93-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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