TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
23-13-2 | Road
2
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
14-17-7 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 2.06 | 0.935 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.06
--
Save %
0.935
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
ISLANDERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
TOR By 1 goal
11.4%
TOR By 2-3 goals
8.5%
NYI By 1 goal
19.7%
NYI By 2-3 goals
30.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2.8
TORONTO
New York
3.91
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
New York
2
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Islanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Islanders (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.1
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
NYI @ TOR
1 - 2
Apr 9, 2026
TOR @ NYI
3 - 5
Mar 17, 2026
NYI @ TOR
3 - 1
Jan 3, 2026
TOR @ NYI
3 - 4
Jan 2, 2025
TOR @ NYI
2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+63.9% more
New York: 5.3
vs
Toronto: 3.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+10.3% more
New York: 30.9
vs
Toronto: 28.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.5%
New York: 54.5%
vs
Toronto: 48.0%
Hits (L5)
+36.2% more
Toronto: 27.7
vs
New York: 17.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.8
2
NYI Score
3.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.8 / 13.2
14.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
54.5 / 48.0
43.4 / 56.6
Hits
17.6 / 27.7
19.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
0.9 / 19.4
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
30.9 / 28.0
33.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 3.2
8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
TOR
NYI
TOR
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
2-0-1
100%
4-0
100%
2-0-1
75%
3-1
Contextual Game News
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