Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Titans HOU @ TEN

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

9-7  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

3-13  |  Home

14
Key Game
Ali Gaye
KEY GAME

Ali Gaye

#95 | Defensive End
@
👤
KEY GAME

Mason Kinsey

#12 | Wide Receiver
Player
Ali Gaye None-None
Mason Kinsey None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
TITANS
100%
TEXANS --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 TitansTEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

61.7%

Titans Cover

38.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.9%

HOU By 7-13 points

18.1%

TEN By 1-6 points

14.6%

TEN By 7-13 points

12.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20.57
HOUSTON
16.42
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
31
HOUSTON
20
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim Texans (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 HOU @ TEN 16 - 13
Sep 28, 2025 TEN @ HOU 0 - 26
Jan 5, 2025 HOU @ TEN 23 - 14
Nov 24, 2024 TEN @ HOU 32 - 27
Dec 31, 2023 TEN @ HOU 3 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +86.8% more
Tennessee: 2.3 vs Houston: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.7% more
Tennessee: 109.3 vs Houston: 78.8
First Downs (L5) +35.8% more
Tennessee: 20.2 vs Houston: 14.9
Total Yards (L5) +24.5% more
Tennessee: 322.8 vs Houston: 259.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 20.6 23
TEN Score 16.4 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 14.9 14.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 213.5 / 180.4 229.0 / 167.0
Rushing Yards 109.3 / 78.8 85.0 / 207.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 322.8 / 259.2 314.0 / 374.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 4.6 5.2 / 6.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
TEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
HOU
TEN
HOU
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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