WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
23-9-2 | Road
5
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
22-12-2 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 2.00 | 0.946 | -- |
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00
GAA
--
0.946
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
CAPITALS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
WSH By 1 goal
13.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
11.4%
TOR By 1 goal
19.6%
TOR By 2-3 goals
26.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2.74
WASHINGTON
Toronto
3.49
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
WSH @ TOR
4 - 0
Dec 18, 2025
TOR @ WSH
0 - 4
Nov 28, 2025
TOR @ WSH
2 - 4
Dec 28, 2024
WSH @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 6, 2024
WSH @ TOR
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+64.0% more
Toronto: 31.8
vs
Washington: 19.4
Shots on Goal (L5)
+30.5% more
Toronto: 25.7
vs
Washington: 19.7
Takeaways (L5)
+16.8% more
Washington: 5.4
vs
Toronto: 4.5
Power Play % (L5)
+12.8%
Washington: 37.7%
vs
Toronto: 24.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.7
5
TOR Score
3.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.0 / 15.3
9.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
47.0 / 48.9
52.7 / 47.3
Hits
31.8 / 19.4
28.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
24.9 / 37.7
0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
25.7 / 19.7
37.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 5.4
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
WSH
TOR
WSH
ML
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
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