MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
15-14 | Road
113
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
21-9 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
ROCKETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
20.5%
HOU By 1-7 points
21.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
114.08
MINNESOTA
Houston
110.81
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Minnesota
114
MINNESOTA
Houston
119
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.3
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
MIN @ HOU
136 - 132
Mar 25, 2026
HOU @ MIN
108 - 110
Jan 16, 2026
MIN @ HOU
105 - 110
Feb 21, 2025
MIN @ HOU
115 - 121
Feb 6, 2025
HOU @ MIN
114 - 127
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+21.6% more
Minnesota: 9.2
vs
Houston: 7.2
Assists (L5)
+18.4% more
Minnesota: 26.3
vs
Houston: 21.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
Minnesota: 38.2%
vs
Houston: 33.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.8%
Minnesota: 80.8%
vs
Houston: 79.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
114.1
113
HOU Score
110.8
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 38.2
33.3 / 48.8
Assists
21.4 / 26.3
19.0 / 25.0
Blocks
7.2 / 4.1
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 44.2
48.9 / 50.6
Free Throw %
79.0 / 80.8
63.2 / 50.0
Rebounding
52.5 / 44.5
47.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.2 / 9.2
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.3 / 14.4
14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIN
HOU
MIN
ML
61%
69-44
54%
63-53
59%
51-35
54%
50-43
ATS
62%
70-43
58%
67-49
59%
51-35
54%
50-43
TTL
51%
58-55
63%
72-43-1
100%
86-0
100%
93-0
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
Adam Fox Quietly Dominating as Rangers Surge Early in 2026-27