TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
21-12-2 | Road
5
DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
13-17-4 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Moritz Seider
#53 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Moritz Seider | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
RED WINGS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
RED WINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
18.8%
TOR By 2-3 goals
22.7%
DET By 1 goal
15.7%
DET By 2-3 goals
14.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2.84
TORONTO
Detroit
2.47
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Detroit
2
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
DET @ TOR
2 - 1
Dec 28, 2025
TOR @ DET
2 - 3
Oct 13, 2025
DET @ TOR
3 - 2
Oct 11, 2025
TOR @ DET
3 - 6
Oct 4, 2025
TOR @ DET
5 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+48.7% more
Toronto: 29.1
vs
Detroit: 14.9
Power Play % (L5)
+16.5%
Toronto: 20.7%
vs
Detroit: 4.2%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+15.6% more
Toronto: 27.0
vs
Detroit: 22.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+15.9% more
Detroit: 14.5
vs
Toronto: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.8
5
DET Score
2.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.5 / 12.5
9.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
48.3 / 49.6
58.1 / 41.9
Hits
14.9 / 29.1
34.0 / 37.0
Power Play %
4.2 / 20.7
33.3 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
22.8 / 27.0
25.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
3.2 / 3.2
2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TOR
DET
TOR
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
0%
0-3
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
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