Home / NFL Projections NFL / Titans @ Jaguars TEN @ JAX

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

3-12  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Dec 29 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

3-12  |  Home

20
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Mason Kinsey

#12 | Wide Receiver
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Mason Kinsey None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
50%
📊
JAGUARS
50%
TITANS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.1
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 points (Jacksonville)
TitansTEN (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

33.0%

Jaguars Cover

67.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JAX -6.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

TEN By 1-6 points

13.4%

TEN By 7-13 points

10.3%

JAX By 1-6 points

16.7%

JAX By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
15.39
TENNESSEE
21.54
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
24
TENNESSEE
20
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.1
D
Sim Titans (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 TEN @ JAX 7 - 41
Nov 30, 2025 JAX @ TEN 25 - 3
Dec 29, 2024 TEN @ JAX 13 - 20
Dec 8, 2024 JAX @ TEN 10 - 6
Jan 7, 2024 JAX @ TEN 20 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +35.3% more
Tennessee: 2.9 vs Jacksonville: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEN Score 15.4 13
JAX Score 21.5 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 18.8 18.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 233.0 / 231.2 173.0 / 178.0
Rushing Yards 88.0 / 84.5 122.0 / 159.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 321.0 / 315.7 295.0 / 337.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 2.9 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.3 5.2 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
TEN
JAX
TEN
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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