MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
14-14 | Road
105
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
19-10 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
MIN By 1-7 points
18.6%
MIN By 8-14 points
8.1%
DAL By 1-7 points
27.2%
DAL By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
109.55
MINNESOTA
Dallas
114.51
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Dallas
109
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
MIN @ DAL
124 - 94
Feb 20, 2026
DAL @ MIN
111 - 122
Jan 28, 2026
MIN @ DAL
118 - 105
Nov 17, 2025
DAL @ MIN
96 - 120
Jan 22, 2025
MIN @ DAL
115 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+30.5% more
Dallas: 4.8
vs
Minnesota: 3.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
Dallas: 49.3%
vs
Minnesota: 43.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
Dallas: 37.0%
vs
Minnesota: 35.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+18.1% more
Minnesota: 16.6
vs
Dallas: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
109.6
105
DAL Score
114.5
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 35.4
37.2 / 43.8
Assists
26.2 / 27.9
15.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.8 / 3.7
8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 43.1
41.4 / 46.5
Free Throw %
75.3 / 78.9
100.0 / 84.6
Rebounding
43.3 / 43.8
43.0 / 46.0
Steals
10.0 / 9.7
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 16.6
13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MIN
DAL
MIN
ML
62%
63-39
54%
63-53
54%
44-37
54%
50-43
ATS
67%
68-34
58%
67-49
54%
44-37
54%
50-43
TTL
59%
60-41-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
81-0
100%
93-0
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