MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
14-13 | Road
104
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
14-15 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
HAWKS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
27.1%
MIN By 8-14 points
19.3%
ATL By 1-7 points
22.4%
ATL By 8-14 points
11.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
108.03
MINNESOTA
Atlanta
105.54
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Minnesota
114
MINNESOTA
Atlanta
117
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.5
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 213.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
ATL @ MIN
116 - 138
Dec 31, 2025
MIN @ ATL
102 - 126
Jan 27, 2025
ATL @ MIN
92 - 100
Dec 23, 2024
MIN @ ATL
104 - 117
Apr 12, 2024
ATL @ MIN
106 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.8% more
Atlanta: 5.7
vs
Minnesota: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+35.1% more
Atlanta: 19.5
vs
Minnesota: 14.4
Steals (L5)
+16.0% more
Atlanta: 10.0
vs
Minnesota: 8.6
Assists (L5)
+10.0% more
Atlanta: 29.0
vs
Minnesota: 26.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
108.0
104
ATL Score
105.5
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 36.8
50.0 / 32.6
Assists
29.0 / 26.3
27.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.7 / 4.1
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 43.2
53.4 / 42.9
Free Throw %
78.5 / 72.2
80.8 / 92.3
Rebounding
47.3 / 44.2
38.0 / 43.0
Steals
10.0 / 8.6
15.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
19.5 / 14.4
23.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIN
ATL
MIN
ML
50%
52-52
54%
63-53
55%
48-40
54%
50-43
ATS
53%
55-48-1
58%
67-49
55%
48-40
54%
50-43
TTL
53%
55-48-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
88-0
100%
93-0
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