WINNIPEG
JETSWPG
24-10-1 | Road
5
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
21-11-2 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Connor Hellebuyck
#37 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Morgan Rielly
#44 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck | None-None | 2.00 | 0.920 | -- |
| Morgan Rielly | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00
GAA
--
0.920
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
JETS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
WPG By 1 goal
10.3%
WPG By 2-3 goals
7.3%
TOR By 1 goal
19.5%
TOR By 2-3 goals
32.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Winnipeg
2.64
WINNIPEG
Toronto
3.94
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Winnipeg
4
WINNIPEG
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.3
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
TOR @ WPG
4 - 3
Jan 1, 2026
WPG @ TOR
5 - 6
Dec 23, 2024
WPG @ TOR
5 - 2
Oct 28, 2024
TOR @ WPG
6 - 4
Jan 27, 2024
TOR @ WPG
4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+114.4% more
Toronto: 29.2
vs
Winnipeg: 13.6
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.5% more
Toronto: 28.1
vs
Winnipeg: 25.9
Takeaways (L5)
+29.8% more
Winnipeg: 5.4
vs
Toronto: 3.8
Power Play % (L5)
+26.1%
Winnipeg: 40.4%
vs
Toronto: 14.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WPG Score
2.6
5
TOR Score
3.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.8 / 17.0
6.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
47.8 / 52.2
53.1 / 46.9
Hits
29.2 / 13.6
29.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
14.3 / 40.4
33.3 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
28.1 / 25.9
25.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
3.8 / 5.4
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
WPG
TOR
WPG
ML
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
ATS
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
100%
4-0
TTL
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
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