WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
23-8-2 | Road
1
BOSTON
BRUINSBOS
18-13-4 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jeremy Swayman
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 3.04 | 0.857 | -- |
| Jeremy Swayman | None-None | 1.00 | 0.909 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.04
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.857
Save %
Ldr 0.909
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
BRUINS
100%
CAPITALS
--
BRUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
28.9%
BOS By 1 goal
12.5%
BOS By 2-3 goals
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.73
WASHINGTON
Boston
2.79
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.9
D
Sim
Bruins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
BOS @ WSH
3 - 2
Mar 7, 2026
WSH @ BOS
1 - 3
Oct 8, 2025
BOS @ WSH
3 - 1
Oct 2, 2025
BOS @ WSH
3 - 1
Sep 21, 2025
WSH @ BOS
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+23.1%
Washington: 39.9%
vs
Boston: 16.8%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+15.5% more
Washington: 17.4
vs
Boston: 14.7
Hits (L5)
+34.1% more
Boston: 26.9
vs
Washington: 20.0
Takeaways (L5)
+13.1% more
Boston: 5.7
vs
Washington: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.7
1
BOS Score
2.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.7 / 17.4
17.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
57.5 / 56.4
66.0 / 34.0
Hits
26.9 / 20.0
19.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
16.8 / 39.9
25.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
26.0 / 24.0
22.0 / 11.0
Takeaways
5.7 / 5.0
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
WSH
BOS
WSH
ML
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
TTL
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…
Alexander Ovechkin to Retire After 2026-27 Season: A Look at His…
Alex Ovechkin to Retire After 2026-27 Season, Ending 22-Year Cap…