PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
15-15-4 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
15-15-5 | Home
7
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Aleksei Kolosov
#35 | G@
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksei Kolosov | None-None | 3.27 | 0.857 | -- |
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.27
GAA
--
0.857
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
PENGUINS
0%
FLYERS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PHI By 1 goal
15.4%
PHI By 2-3 goals
14.4%
PIT By 1 goal
18.9%
PIT By 2-3 goals
23.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.44
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
3.86
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
7 - 0
Apr 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 1
Apr 27, 2026
PHI @ PIT
2 - 3
Apr 25, 2026
PIT @ PHI
4 - 2
Apr 22, 2026
PIT @ PHI
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+90.5% more
Pittsburgh: 6.6
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Power Play % (L5)
+10.9%
Pittsburgh: 13.8%
vs
Philadelphia: 2.8%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+19.8% more
Philadelphia: 26.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 21.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.4
3
PIT Score
3.9
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.9 / 15.0
11.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
50.8 / 52.2
59.2 / 40.8
Hits
15.1 / 15.3
21.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
13.8 / 2.8
100.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
21.4 / 26.7
22.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
6.6 / 3.5
6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
PHI
PIT
PHI
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
Joseph Woll's Strong Start in Philadelphia Has Maple Leafs Fans …
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…