NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
12-14-7 | Road
6
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
21-10-2 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 3.00 | 0.897 | -- |
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00
GAA
--
0.897
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
ISLANDERS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
NYI By 1 goal
17.2%
NYI By 2-3 goals
18.0%
TOR By 1 goal
17.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.02
NEW YORK
Toronto
3.08
TORONTO
Simulated Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
NYI @ TOR
1 - 2
Apr 9, 2026
TOR @ NYI
3 - 5
Mar 17, 2026
NYI @ TOR
3 - 1
Jan 3, 2026
TOR @ NYI
3 - 4
Jan 2, 2025
TOR @ NYI
2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+17.3% more
Toronto: 25.8
vs
New York: 22.0
Power Play % (L5)
+14.3%
Toronto: 21.5%
vs
New York: 7.2%
Takeaways (L5)
+31.1% more
New York: 6.1
vs
Toronto: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYI Score
3.0
6
TOR Score
3.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.2 / 15.3
15.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
54.0 / 55.1
35.3 / 64.7
Hits
25.8 / 22.0
36.0 / 11.0
Power Play %
2150.0 / 716.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.6 / 27.4
29.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 6.1
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYI
TOR
NYI
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
4-0
100%
2-0-1
75%
3-1
100%
2-0-1
Contextual Game News
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