MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
14-11 | Road
101
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
23-4 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
BUCKS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.8
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.8 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -6.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
MIL By 1-7 points
15.6%
MIL By 8-14 points
5.9%
CLE By 1-7 points
26.3%
CLE By 8-14 points
25.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
112.38
MILWAUKEE
Cleveland
119.21
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Cleveland
107
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.8
D
Sim
Bucks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
CLE @ MIL
123 - 116
Feb 25, 2026
CLE @ MIL
116 - 118
Nov 17, 2025
MIL @ CLE
106 - 118
Oct 26, 2025
MIL @ CLE
113 - 118
Mar 9, 2025
CLE @ MIL
112 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+44.6% more
Cleveland: 10.0
vs
Milwaukee: 6.9
Assists (L5)
+14.1% more
Cleveland: 29.1
vs
Milwaukee: 25.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.7%
Cleveland: 79.7%
vs
Milwaukee: 71.0%
Blocks (L5)
+16.6% more
Milwaukee: 5.6
vs
Cleveland: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
112.4
101
CLE Score
119.2
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.0 / 39.5
42.6 / 37.0
Assists
29.1 / 25.5
30.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.6 / 5.6
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.1 / 47.0
50.5 / 47.1
Free Throw %
79.7 / 71.0
85.7 / 61.1
Rebounding
44.0 / 45.0
48.0 / 45.0
Steals
10.0 / 6.9
11.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 15.9
18.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIL
CLE
MIL
ML
60%
69-46
64%
61-35
56%
55-44
60%
49-32
ATS
67%
75-37-3
68%
65-31
56%
55-44
60%
49-32
TTL
59%
68-47
55%
53-43
100%
99-0
100%
81-0
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